Lesson 3 | Probability | 7th Grade Mathematics

Objective

Determine the probability of events.

Common Core Standards

Core Standards

The core standards covered in this lesson

7.SP.C.7.A — Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

Statistics and Probability

7.SP.C.7.A — Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
7.SP.C.7.B — Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Statistics and Probability

7.SP.C.7.B — Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Foundational Standards

The foundational standards covered in this lesson

5.NF.A.2

Number and Operations—Fractions

5.NF.A.2 — Solve word problems involving addition and subtraction of fractions referring to the same whole, including cases of unlike denominators, e.g., by using visual fraction models or equations to represent the problem. Use benchmark fractions and number sense of fractions to estimate mentally and assess the reasonableness of answers. For example, recognize an incorrect result 2/5 + 1/2 = 3/7, by observing that 3/7 < 1/2.

Criteria for Success

The essential concepts students need to demonstrate or understand to achieve the lesson objective

Understand the probability of an event can be represented as a fraction, where the numerator is the number of desired events and the denominator is the number of total events.
Find the probability of “or” and “not” events.
Interpret information from tables to determine probabilities of events.
Determine the impact of a changing sample space on probabilities of events.

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Anchor Problems

Problems designed to teach key points of the lesson and guiding questions to help draw out student understanding

25-30 minutes

Problem 1

A board game has a spinner with four different options of how a player can move: move forward 1 space, move forward 2 spaces, move backward 1 space, or lose a turn. The probabilities of spinning each option are shown below.

Spin	Move forward 1 space	Move forward 2 spaces	Move backward 1 space	Lose a turn
Probability	$${{1\over2}}$$	$${{{{1\over12}}}}$$	$${{1\over3}}$$	$${{{{1\over12}}}}$$

a. What is the probability of a player moving forward on his or her turn?

b. What is the probability of a player either moving backward or losing a turn?

Guiding Questions

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Student Response

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Problem 2

Students in the sixth and seventh grade at your school are going on a field trip to the Science Museum. If a student returns his or her permission slip by May 1, then he or she is entered into a raffle to win a $25 gift card to the museum gift store. The table below shows the number of students in each grade and from each homeroom who returned their permission slip by May 1.

	Homeroom 1	Homeroom 2	Homeroom 3
6th Grade	7	6	8
7th Grade	10	9	10

One student will win the raffle by random selection. What is the probability that

a. the winner is a seventh grader?

b. the winner is a seventh grader from Homeroom 2?

c. the winner is from Homeroom 3?

d. the winner is not from Homeroom 1?

Guiding Questions

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Student Response

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Problem 3

A bag contains different colored jelly beans. In the bag, there are 5 red jelly beans, 3 blue jelly beans, 2 green jelly beans, and 2 yellow jelly beans.

a. What is the probability of picking a blue jelly bean from the bag?

b. Some orange jelly beans are added to the bag. After adding these new jelly beans, the probability of picking a yellow jelly bean changes to $${{1\over8}}$$. How many orange jelly beans were added?

Guiding Questions

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Student Response

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Problem Set

A set of suggested resources or problem types that teachers can turn into a problem set

15-20 minutes

Give your students more opportunities to practice the skills in this lesson with a downloadable problem set aligned to the daily objective.

Target Task

A task that represents the peak thinking of the lesson - mastery will indicate whether or not objective was achieved

5-10 minutes

Lucia’s full name is Lucia Andrea Sanchez. For her birthday, her aunt makes cupcakes and writes one letter from Lucia’s full name on each cupcake.

If a cupcake is randomly chosen, what is the probability that:

a. the cupcake has the letter A written on it?

b. the cupcake does not have the letter C written on it?

c. the cupcake has a vowel written on it?

Student Response

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Additional Practice

The following resources include problems and activities aligned to the objective of the lesson that can be used for additional practice or to create your own problem set.

MARS Summative Assessment Tasks for Middle School Card Game
Open Up Resources Grade 7 Unit 8 Practice Problems — Lesson 3
MARS Formative Assessment Lessons for Grade 7 Evaluating Statements about Probability
EngageNY Mathematics Grade 7 Mathematics > Module 5 > Topic A > Lesson 4 — Problem Set (do not include problems that involve compound probability of more than one event)
Illustrative Mathematics How Many Buttons? — (This requires collecting data from the class on how many buttons students have on their clothing. It can also be adapted to include a table of data rather than requiring students to collect it)
EngageNY Mathematics Grade 7 Mathematics > Module 5 > Topic A > Lesson 5 — Exercises and Problem Set

Probability

Objective

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Common Core Standards

Core Standards

Statistics and Probability

Statistics and Probability

Foundational Standards

Number and Operations—Fractions

Criteria for Success

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Anchor Problems

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Problem 1

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Guiding Questions

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Problem 2

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Guiding Questions

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Problem 3

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Guiding Questions

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Problem Set

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Target Task

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Student Response

Additional Practice

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