# Probability

## Objective

Design and conduct simulations to model real-world situations.

## Common Core Standards

### Core Standards

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• 7.SP.C.7 — Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

## Criteria for Success

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1. Understand that real-world outcomes can be simulated using probability models and tools.
2. Describe how a single event can be simulated using an experiment.
3. Conduct an experiment to simulate a single real-world event, and collect and analyze the data (MP.4).

## Tips for Teachers

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### Lesson Materials

• Plastic cups (non-see-through ) (3 per small group)
• Plastic balls (like ping-pong) (3 per small group)

### Remote Learning Guidance

If you need to adapt or shorten this lesson for remote learning, we suggest prioritizing Anchor Problem 1 (benefits from discussion). Find more guidance on adapting our math curriculum for remote learning here.

#### Fishtank Plus

• Problem Set
• Student Handout Editor
• Vocabulary Package

## Anchor Problems

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### Problem 1

How could you design an experiment that could simulate these events?

1. Two friends go out to eat at a restaurant. One person will be randomly chosen to pay the bill. Which friend pays the bill?
2. 10% of the population is left-handed. Will the next person you meet be left-handed?
3. Your teacher has four different versions of a quiz that she will distribute equally to the class. Which quiz will you take?

### Problem 2

You are playing a video game. At the end of every level, there are three boxes. One contains 10,000 points, and the other two are empty. You are allowed to choose one of the boxes, but before the one you choose opens, one of the other boxes always opens to show that it is empty. The game allows you to either (1) stay with your first choice or (2) switch to the other unopened box.

For example, there are three boxes: A, B, and C.

Suppose you choose box B:

Before box B opens, one of the other boxes opens to show that it is empty. Imagine that in this case it is box C:

The game allows you to stay with your first choice or to switch to the other unopened box. Should you stay or should you switch?

#### References

Illustrative Mathematics Stay or Switch?

Stay or Switch?, accessed on April 5, 2018, 2:14 p.m., is licensed by Illustrative Mathematics under either the CC BY 4.0 or CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. For further information, contact Illustrative Mathematics.

## Problem Set

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The following resources include problems and activities aligned to the objective of the lesson that can be used to create your own problem set.

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In a video game, the chance of rain each day is always 30%. At the beginning of each day in the video game, the computer generates a random integer between 1 and 50.

Explain how you could use this number to simulate the weather in the video game.