Conduct simulations with multiple events to determine probabilities.
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If you need to adapt or shorten this lesson for remote learning, we suggest prioritizing Anchor Problem 1 (benefits from worked example) and Anchor Problem 2 (can be done independently). Find more guidance on adapting our math curriculum for remote learning here.
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Steve is a basketball player on your school’s team. During a game, he gets to take two shots from the free-throw line. On average, Steve makes a shot from the free-throw line half of the time. What is the probability that he will make both shots?
Al says: “The three possible results are that Steve makes $$0$$ shots, $$1$$ shot, or $$2$$ shots. So, each result has a probability of $${1\over3}$$.”
Use a coin or a number cube to simulate multiple trials of this situation. Then analyze your results and determine if Al’s statement is accurate or not.
Try, Try Again from Poster Problems is made available by SERP under the CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Accessed April 5, 2018, 1:28 p.m..
Modified by Fishtank Learning, Inc.Eleven horses enter a race. The first one to pass the finish line wins.
Using The Horse Race board, place counters on the starting squares labeled 2 to 12. Share out the horses so that each person in your group has three or four horses.
How to play:
Analyzing Games of Chance from the Classroom Challenges by the MARS Shell Center team at the University of Nottingham is made available by the Mathematics Assessment Project under the CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 license. Copyright © 2007-2015 Mathematics Assessment Resource Service, University of Nottingham. Accessed April 5, 2018, 1:29 p.m..
Modified by Fishtank Learning, Inc.?
The following resources include problems and activities aligned to the objective of the lesson that can be used to create your own problem set.
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Aimee has two sisters in her family. She thinks the probability of a family having three children who are all girls is $${{{{1\over4}}}}$$ because there can be 0 girls, 1 girl, 2 girls, or 3 girls.
Aimee designs a simulation to test her prediction. She flips a coin three times in a row and records the results. She uses heads to represent a girl and tails to represent a boy. After 10 trials of this simulation, Aimee gets the following results.
Trial | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
Results | BBB | GBB | GGG | GGB | BBG | GGB | BGG | BGB | BBG | GBB |
a. Does $${{{{1\over4}}}}$$ seem like a reasonable probability of having 3 girls? Explain your reasoning.
b. Estimate the probability of having 3 girls using the results from Aimee’s simulation.